Recently in Energy Category

A terrorist couldn't have planned it any better.

Hurricane Ike and its record expected 10-27 foot storm surge is headed directly for the Houston Ship Channel and the region that provides the nation's chemicals, oil refining and natural gas pipeline operational centers, it also is a major port for Midwest grain transport.

Expect gas prices to rise for weeks or months, and don't be surprised to experience gas shortages or even gas outages in parts of the country. Gas prices surged to $5 a gallon at the pump in some locations this morning already.

Though "only" a Category 2 hurricane, Ike covers a freakishly large area, with tropical storm winds extending 550 miles and hurricane force winds covering 240 miles. This will bring a forecast storm surge up to 30 feet in parts of the Texas coast, with the highest surge taking dead aim for Galveston Bay and near La Port and Baytown where the Houston Ship Channel begins.

Dr. Jeff Masters, one of the nation's leading experts, called it this morning, "poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time."  

Homeland Security secretary Michael Chertoff in today's Wall Street Journal called Ike's directly hitting the Houston Ship Channel "one of the nightmare scenarios in the world of hurricane watching." He said it could damage "a lot of the energy and chemcial resources we depend on in this country."

Besides the national economic damage Ike will inflict, expect massive human health and environmental consequences from the pending disaster. The region of southeast Houston and southeast Texas is home to hundreds of chemical plants and dozens of refineries, with 89 percent handling hazardous waste. The neighborhoods surrounding the channel are largely Hispanic, some by more than 90 percent.

I wonder if local Texas officials have reached out to Hispanics through media and other ways, so that they can be evacuated from what may become the equivalent of the Ninth Ward during Katrina in New Orleans. In coastal Freeport, no special outreach was made to "undocumented" communities, according to the Christian Science Monitor.

This event portends to reshape the US energy economy, disaster preparedness and the implications of climate change adaptation (see my blog entries from earlier this week).

My hope is that people make it out of there safely while there is still time.

The 5th Annual Conference on Climate Change in California wrapped up yesterday, and speakers took on the hard questions that follow on the heels of the scientific acknowledgement that at least some global man-made climate change is now occurring thorughout the world, and that includes California.

Greenhouse gases have "lifetimes of decades if not centuries," according to Scripps Institute of Oceanography's Dan Cayan, and there is likely to be ongoing impacts at every level of culture, society and the economy.

The so-called "wicked problems" the state faces--the term taken from Dan Cayan's label of "problems that are all tangled up in different processes"--are rife.

• Water allocation, with Sierra snowpack forecast to decrease 30-90 percent from 2020 through 2090, creating a scramble for water among users. UC Berkeley's Michael Hanemann noted that the state was not measuring current diversions of water or groundwater use.
• The costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation: How expensive will it be? Who will pay and will there be a way to allocate costs equitably? 
• Communcation of both the nature and scale of the problem to the American populace, media and policy makers is a challenge since scientific data can be misinterpreted, misunderstood or downright ignored. "We're not good entertainers," Dr. Cayan ad-libbed to the amusement of the large audience of mainly scientists.
• More and more data and information is needed, according to the California Department of Water Resources director Lester Snow, to better forecast and prepare for damage to human settlements and ecosystems through climate change induced flood, drought and wildfires.

So what were some of the best ideas that came forth during the Sacramento event once the caveats cleared?

Economics professor Hanemann suggested that the state come up with climate change adaptation plans similar to existing urban water management plans. Just as the water management plans do for extreme drought, climate change adaptation plans could scope what could be done by state, regional and local government to prepare for worst-case scenarios (drought, flood, heat stroms, wildfires) in land use, transportation and public health.

ICLEI's Gary Cook outlined how that international member-based organization is leading assessments and actions plans for climate resilient communities in four US locations: Keene, NH; Homer, AK; Miami-Dade County, FL; and Ft. Collins, CO.

Art Rosenfeld, longtime commissioner of conference host the California Energy Commission, spoke on day one about how cool roofs--a very low cost or even no extra cost technology--reduces cooling use by 20 percent in homes and businesses, while reducing overall urban heat islands.

This one step taken in all new construction in the world's largest 100 cities, which at the CEC's behest California is mandating for all new and rebuilt homes next year, would save 400 billions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions. That is equivalent to more than the greenhouse gas emissions of all nations for an entire year.

And people would pay less on their energy bills, providing a net positive financial impact immediately for all homes that use air conditioning.

In addition to state policies like AB 32, which would reduce overall emissions by 70 percent come 2050 with myriad such policies to reduce building, transportation, government and industry carbon emissions, there is no one silver bullet. 

California is beginning to demonstrate that such wicked problems must be attacked with an almost endless arsenal of research, policy, programatic, product and management innovation. 

 

 

  

Whoever thinks of Los Angeles as a car-only city hasn't been there since gas prices started their stratospheric ascent last year.

Yesterday I visited LA's Century City and West Hollywood for meetings, and was shocked to see pedestrians everywhere, dozens of buses (the Big Blue Bus on the Westside and the red and orange Metro Bus Rapid Transit lines), as well as cyclists in bike lanes zipping up and down Santa Monica Boulevard.

The numbers from my old pals at the Bureau of Census American Community Survey support what I experienced: from 2004 to 2006 LA commuter use of public transit increased from 9.5 percent of city residents to 11 percent, which is a 14 percent total increase! Walking increased from 3.1 percent of the city's resident commuters in 2004 to 3.4 percent in 2006. The upshot: only 67 percent drove alone to work in 2006 compared to 70 percent that did so in 2004.

Mayor Antonio Vaillaraigosa urged LA residents this week to ride public transit at least once a week to help clear up the city's notorious traffic gridlock. Meanhwile, the head of the Sacramento-based California Bicycle Coalition estimated this week that bike ridership in Los Angeles County has increased 25 percent from 2007 to this year.

I was meeting separately with the Los Angeles Business Council and the City of West Hollywood to explore ways in which the LA area can get greener. We discussed many initiatives the city started or is planning, including its city-wide green building ordinance and a major solar power bond for business and residents backed by the behemoth Department of Water and Power, as well as a city sustainability summit at UCLA in November.

But I'm most excited about the visible change in LA that I witnessed and eavesdropped on: Hollywood business types were talking next to me at cafes about cycling and how the city needs more bike lanes, on Santa Monica Boulevard cyberkids were texting about where they were walking next, and for once no one ever asked me if I needed a ride down the block.

Blue sky, nice ocean breeze and people are getting out of their cars in Los Angeles, even editorials in the Los Angeles Times about the importance of eating local food: 

The times they are a changin'.

This is monumental, definitely top ten for 2008 material.

California is requiring that all new construction voluntarily be green, with minimum standards of 15 percent building energy reduction, 20 percent water reduction and up to 50 percent reduction in landscaping water use.

This will be a major way the state reduces carbon under AB 32, as buildings in California account for about 25 percent of the state's greenhouse gas emissions.

Regulations will become mandatory in either mid-2010 or the beginning of 2011, announced Rosario Marin, California Building Standards Commission Chairwoman. Marin is the former US Treasurer (under Bush), and a friend of Maria Shriver's.

California's Air Resources Board (CARB) released late last week its Draft Scoping Plan, or what it is calling "a market-based roadmap guiding California toward its greenhouse gas emission goals."

 

The plan will be baked into more final recommendations by November, when it will begin to lay out what legal measures the state will take to reduce carbon emissions in 12 category subgroups, including land use (which includes transportation design).

 

Local and regional government is being called upon by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and state lawmakers to create more densely developed, better planned communities, meaning towns, cites and developments that have good public transit, walkability and bikeability so people aren't forced to drive everywhere for every need.

 

Transportation is the highest single category for carbon emissions in California, at 38% in 2004; unlike other categories, transportation is fast growing emissions--at a rate of 25%. In some areas of the state, such as the San Francisco Bay Area, transportation is responsible for about 50% of total carbon emissions. Other local or regional government areas targeted will be energy use, waste recycling and water use.

 

The state cites forecasts that global climate change can reduce California's GDP by 20 percent or more from droughts, heat waves and severely reduced snowpack, impacting everything from its massive water distribution systems to coastlines, low-lying properties and its large winter sports industry.

 

We're already seeing in California all-time record heat waves, droughts  and crazy numbers of wildfires. How much of all of this can be attributed to global climate change is debatable. After large parts of the state had its worst air quality on record last week from more than 1,000 wildfires that today required intervention from the National Guard, no one can reasonably argue that global climate change won't produce at least the substantial risk of significant health and economic impacts.

 

The AB 32 scoping plan puts climate change mitigation costs--for everything from low-carbon fuel technologies to building improvement--at between -1 and 1% of its GDP.

 

In terms of local and regional governments, economic costs will result from "policies to reduce (GHG) transmissions by changing how we grow and build our communities." Look for more actions like those taken by the Attorney Governor's office last year against Southern California's San Bernardino County for not including carbon emission impacts as part of planning and land use under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).

 

Also expect regional "blueprint planning networks" to take a major role in determining how carbon can be cut through coordinated scenario modeling, planning, actions and performance indictor metrics. These blueprint networks are already working with the Governor's Office of Planning and Research to make sure general plans and projects are consistent with carbon output scenarios and indicators that will be required under CEQA.

 

Other parts of the mix may include congestion pricing, as well as other ways to reduce indirect sources that will reduce vehicle trips, such as The US Green Building Council's upcoming LEED--Neighborhood Development standards.

 

On the revenue-positive side of the ledger, towns, cities and counties should look to receiving "revenue generated as part of the program that could be distributed in a way to substantially mitigate any price increases."

 

Local and regional governments in California are also already the nation's leading beneficiaries of tax revenues from the rapidly advancing green economy. The growth of green technologies, such as PV solar, and advanced transportation (electric and plug-in hybrid fuel technologies), as well as building products and services (architecture, construction, landscaping, consulting) are some of the hottest growth industries in an otherwise stagnant job market.

 

All in all, AB 32 seeks a per-person carbon reduction from 14 tons for every state resident down to 10 tons per person by 2020.

 

So far, regional and local governments in California are expected to make only about 1-4 percent of these reductions; the next few months will shape until 2020 how every town, city or county will be expected to contribute its part in the nation's first major systematic carbon reduction legislation.   

San Francsico passed last week (thanks to upcoming green design site Inhabit.com) the nation's largest solar incentive program for a US city. SF budgeted $3 million for individual homes, multi-family homes, non-profits, low-income homes and business subsidies. The city will even help figure out solar suitability of properties and buildings for free.

Combined with the nation's largest combined municipal solar installations at over 1.5 MW, San Francisco now has a terrific twosome of city solar projects and citizen incentives. The new $3 million fund is expected to develop 1.5 MW of power--this in a city known for its fog-shrouded weather.

Next, maybe the US can look to Germany's feed-in tariff regulations, where any homeowner or business generating electricity from wind, PV solar, hydroelectric gets a guaranteeed payment four times the market rate.

Because of these regulations, Freiburg, Germany, a city only one-quarter the size of San Francisco located in the equally non-tropical Black Forest, had a solar generating capacity of more than 8.6 MW at the end of 2006.  

Almost two weeks ago I presented to the European Union's Committee of the Regions special meeting on "Green and Connected Cities" which was held in Brussels. I also presented on the same theme at an event in Paris the same week.

(Please excuse the late post).

I was struck by how much more advanced Europe is in policy as it relates to the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) to acheive sustainability, and that naturally includes economic dvelopment. The EU has an official mandate to use ITC to help not only reduce climate change through greater energy efficiency, but to:

"stimulate the development of a large leading-edge market for ICT-enabeled energy efficiency that will foster the competiveness of European Industry and create new business opportunities."

The event was oragnized by ACIDD, the European association for communication and information for sustainable development, and it featured 31 other presenters from Europe and Africa.

Two of my fellow presenters on my panel were notable. One was Charles Secrett, of the London Development Agency, who guided sustainability policy including but by no means limited to the congestion pricing scheme implemented by outgoing London Mayor Ken Livingston.

Though Livingston lost in a recent election, congestion pricing has been a great success reducing traffic congestion and air pollution in the range of 20-40 percent. Secrett told me it's anyone's guess whether incoming mayor elect Boris Johnson will maintain congestion pricing or Livingston's other well-laid plans for carbon reduction.

Also on my panel was Leda Guidi, head of Iperbola. She described in detail the electronic participatory democracy of Bologna, Italy, which has been garnering citizens votes and feedback on sustainability planning since 1995, with impressive participation rates (30k visits per day).

Cisco presented on its Connected Urban Development initiative which is working with cities such as San Francisco, Amsterdam and Seoul on everything from wireless building networks and transportation systems, to teleworking centers for commuters to use in lieu of driving. Madrid, Lisbon, Hamburg, and Birmingham, England are the next locations for pilot projects. 

A dose of realism was brought to the proceedings by Ronan Uhel from the EU's Environment Agency, as he said the EU's 27 countries and countless regions and cities will need to develop common data methodologies and processes to make these scale up across the EU.

"Stop exchanging data," Uhel told the Brussels audience. "And start sharing data, ontologies, multi-lingual websites, metadata and formats. Success will be predicated on the work that goes on backstage." 

EU Commissioner Nicholas Hanley gave paticipants the big picture of why cities should be the focus of sustainability and climate change policy engineering: "Cities concentrate the problems related to sustainability, but they also concentrate the capacity for response."