Recently in Climate Change Category

Friday was a typical feast day in the Bay Area for sustainability events. Something had to give.

The Congress for New Urbanism (CNU) held "Sustainable Communities 2008," West Coast Green did its annual show in San Jose and Gov. Schwarzenegger addressed the SF Commonwealth Club on the second anniversary of AB 32.

I spoke at West Coast Green on Sustainability Dashboards with Gil Friend of Natural Logic and Peter Sharer, CEO of Agilewaves. I've known Gil since the early 1990s, in 1997 we devised the Integrated Resource Efficiency Management Plan for Willie Brown and Mission Bay in SF. I had just met Peter at the event. We had a nice full room, good questions and no margin for error in a packed 45 minutes.

CNU's morning program was brilliant, with Peter Schwarz from Global Business Network; Whole Earth Catalog publisher and The WELL founder Stewart Brand; and Smart Growth guru Peter Calthorpe all honoring Sim Van Der Ryn, the legendary green building and community designer.

Schwartz told how a broken Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and an imploding Ferderal Interstate Highway System are leading indicators of the collapse of sprawl as the uberforce of American community design.

Said CNU President and former Milwaukee mayor John Norquist "Sprawl is the number one risk factor in real estate development," he said. "The good news is that you can retrofit sprawl and make it enjoyable."

Schwartz, who co-authored some of the leading scenarios (pre-"Inconvenient Truth") on the security impacts of climate change for the Department of Defense, said that global climate change demands something akin to a world EPA.

Calthorpe, of Peter Calthorpe and Associates, told the oft-repeated truism of how cities are leading the way with sustainability policy and thought over national government with a new twist: cities are sharing best practices by traveling around and kibbitzing with one another in what he called "lateral learning."

"The feds are last to get the message," he said, and he went on to illustrate how Sim Van Der Ryn's systems thinking (and doing) as State Architect under former California Governor Jerry Brown in the 1970s--passive daylighting, active solar, social engineering, geothermal and biomass energy, and bio-retenion systems--set the stage for his firm's projects with barrier islands in Lousiana, transit villages in Los Angeles and Portland's city streets.

Most memorable was Brand's video of a just-in-time market in Mumbai, India, that is unpacked when a train comes to let it through, and then people pop down awnings, produce and wares right on the tracks seconds from when the train has rolled through.

Meanwhile, Sim table hopped, to sit with his many different admirers. Sorry I had to miss his award and hope we are able to get together soon as planned. He has been using slides from my book How Green is Your City? in his presentations, we are on some parallel paths.

And Gov. Arnold? As I said, something had to give.

 

 

The 5th Annual Conference on Climate Change in California wrapped up yesterday, and speakers took on the hard questions that follow on the heels of the scientific acknowledgement that at least some global man-made climate change is now occurring thorughout the world, and that includes California.

Greenhouse gases have "lifetimes of decades if not centuries," according to Scripps Institute of Oceanography's Dan Cayan, and there is likely to be ongoing impacts at every level of culture, society and the economy.

The so-called "wicked problems" the state faces--the term taken from Dan Cayan's label of "problems that are all tangled up in different processes"--are rife.

• Water allocation, with Sierra snowpack forecast to decrease 30-90 percent from 2020 through 2090, creating a scramble for water among users. UC Berkeley's Michael Hanemann noted that the state was not measuring current diversions of water or groundwater use.
• The costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation: How expensive will it be? Who will pay and will there be a way to allocate costs equitably? 
• Communcation of both the nature and scale of the problem to the American populace, media and policy makers is a challenge since scientific data can be misinterpreted, misunderstood or downright ignored. "We're not good entertainers," Dr. Cayan ad-libbed to the amusement of the large audience of mainly scientists.
• More and more data and information is needed, according to the California Department of Water Resources director Lester Snow, to better forecast and prepare for damage to human settlements and ecosystems through climate change induced flood, drought and wildfires.

So what were some of the best ideas that came forth during the Sacramento event once the caveats cleared?

Economics professor Hanemann suggested that the state come up with climate change adaptation plans similar to existing urban water management plans. Just as the water management plans do for extreme drought, climate change adaptation plans could scope what could be done by state, regional and local government to prepare for worst-case scenarios (drought, flood, heat stroms, wildfires) in land use, transportation and public health.

ICLEI's Gary Cook outlined how that international member-based organization is leading assessments and actions plans for climate resilient communities in four US locations: Keene, NH; Homer, AK; Miami-Dade County, FL; and Ft. Collins, CO.

Art Rosenfeld, longtime commissioner of conference host the California Energy Commission, spoke on day one about how cool roofs--a very low cost or even no extra cost technology--reduces cooling use by 20 percent in homes and businesses, while reducing overall urban heat islands.

This one step taken in all new construction in the world's largest 100 cities, which at the CEC's behest California is mandating for all new and rebuilt homes next year, would save 400 billions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions. That is equivalent to more than the greenhouse gas emissions of all nations for an entire year.

And people would pay less on their energy bills, providing a net positive financial impact immediately for all homes that use air conditioning.

In addition to state policies like AB 32, which would reduce overall emissions by 70 percent come 2050 with myriad such policies to reduce building, transportation, government and industry carbon emissions, there is no one silver bullet. 

California is beginning to demonstrate that such wicked problems must be attacked with an almost endless arsenal of research, policy, programatic, product and management innovation. 

 

 

  

Lucky for me I was able to be in town for Labor Day weekend, and immersed myself in Slow Food Nation as well as San Francisco's Sunday Streets event.

It's so inspiring that wholistic urban sustainability is becoming a reality, and that is making carbon-reduction fun, profitable, innovative and, yes, delicious. 

My family and I took our bikes to the ferry to the sunny city and pedeled around the car-free city streets, with roller skaters, tricyclists, runners, walkers and pogo-stickers.

The Sunday Streets events was the first if its kind for San Francisco. This year Portland, Oregon, and New York City have already done the same, in the mold of Bogota, Columbia's Ciclovia. It was a big hit, stressing physical fitness at different stations along the waterfront with activities for the kids and hula hoops for everyone else. Kudos to Mayor Newsom, the department of parking and traffic that blocked off auto traffic and all the volunteers.  

Our destination was the Victory Garden in front of San Francisco City Hall, the community centerpiece of the Slow Food Nation festival.  Slow Food Nation celebrated local, organic, tasty, fair and humane American food, the largest celebration of its kind, with 60,000 attending the three-day proceedings. 

Besides the gorgeous 1/3-acre victory garden, where children and adults visibily delighted in experiencing a working food plot (200 pounds going to food banks this week alone), we went to a tasting of some of the best food purveyors in the nation Saturday evening.

Some food highlights: a truly white (clear) old vine Fume Blanc from Oregon, Rubicon's 2004 estate red, chocolate from Madgasgar, pickled vegetables, acme bread pizza, wild coffee beans from Eritrea.

I also chatted with many luminaries: Vandana Shiva, who is saving thousands of species of rice from extinction in India; John Knox, co-founder of the Earth Island Institute and Michael Dimock, of the Roots of Change fund, which helped Slow Food organize the event.

Sue Conley co-founder of the Cowgirl Creamery in Point Reyes, CA, told me that higher energy prices have made her legendary cheese business take off even more recently.  

She opined that we are at a watershed moment, when locally produced food starts to lose its "gourmet" connotations and starts to be known as the healthy, high quality way to put our money where our mouths are, which will help local economies while preserving our valuable farm and pastureland from getting paved over forever.

Friday night I took a little spin on my bike around San Francisco, hitting the Mission District's Valencia Street.

While the new U-shaped racks are nice to have on the sidewalk in front of many businesses, the ultimate is to be able to bring your bike inside with you so can keep it safe from the elements and from those who might covet the bike, or certain pieces of it.

So after a quick but distracted bite to eat of Belgium Frites with both eyes out the window at one place's rack, I rode down the bike lane (one of the first in SF--from about 1995!) toward Zeitgeist (199 Valencia Street, at Duboce). I knew bikes can be stored there on wall-mounted hooks festooned all around the outdoor beergarden.

At Zeitgeist, which I would file under "hipster-cyclist mileau," I was met at the door by a bouncer telling me there was no more space in the beer garden for bikes. He was square in form and pretty serious about not letting me through. I've seen more than 50 bikes at Z-geist before, maybe even 100, so this was a shocker.

I carefully pleaded my case, "I won't be able to spend money in your business if you don't let me in with my bike. There's no way I'm leaving this carbon fiber racer out in the street for the junkies to prey upon."

He held his goateed chin and pondered. "Alright, just don't let them know I sent you, because the racks are too full."

Sure enough there was an empty hook along the whitewashed fence in the large backyard for me to hang my front wheel upon, and spend money I did.

Note to other businesses: cyclists will stay longer, buy more, and are more likely to return if you can allow people to bring bikes into a safe place off the streets. Or provide valet parking with a guard, as local bike coalitions do for some events, such as the SF Bike Coalition and Marin County Bicycle Coaltion.

 

Photo by Tom McClure

This is monumental, definitely top ten for 2008 material.

California is requiring that all new construction voluntarily be green, with minimum standards of 15 percent building energy reduction, 20 percent water reduction and up to 50 percent reduction in landscaping water use.

This will be a major way the state reduces carbon under AB 32, as buildings in California account for about 25 percent of the state's greenhouse gas emissions.

Regulations will become mandatory in either mid-2010 or the beginning of 2011, announced Rosario Marin, California Building Standards Commission Chairwoman. Marin is the former US Treasurer (under Bush), and a friend of Maria Shriver's.

California's Air Resources Board (CARB) released late last week its Draft Scoping Plan, or what it is calling "a market-based roadmap guiding California toward its greenhouse gas emission goals."

 

The plan will be baked into more final recommendations by November, when it will begin to lay out what legal measures the state will take to reduce carbon emissions in 12 category subgroups, including land use (which includes transportation design).

 

Local and regional government is being called upon by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and state lawmakers to create more densely developed, better planned communities, meaning towns, cites and developments that have good public transit, walkability and bikeability so people aren't forced to drive everywhere for every need.

 

Transportation is the highest single category for carbon emissions in California, at 38% in 2004; unlike other categories, transportation is fast growing emissions--at a rate of 25%. In some areas of the state, such as the San Francisco Bay Area, transportation is responsible for about 50% of total carbon emissions. Other local or regional government areas targeted will be energy use, waste recycling and water use.

 

The state cites forecasts that global climate change can reduce California's GDP by 20 percent or more from droughts, heat waves and severely reduced snowpack, impacting everything from its massive water distribution systems to coastlines, low-lying properties and its large winter sports industry.

 

We're already seeing in California all-time record heat waves, droughts  and crazy numbers of wildfires. How much of all of this can be attributed to global climate change is debatable. After large parts of the state had its worst air quality on record last week from more than 1,000 wildfires that today required intervention from the National Guard, no one can reasonably argue that global climate change won't produce at least the substantial risk of significant health and economic impacts.

 

The AB 32 scoping plan puts climate change mitigation costs--for everything from low-carbon fuel technologies to building improvement--at between -1 and 1% of its GDP.

 

In terms of local and regional governments, economic costs will result from "policies to reduce (GHG) transmissions by changing how we grow and build our communities." Look for more actions like those taken by the Attorney Governor's office last year against Southern California's San Bernardino County for not including carbon emission impacts as part of planning and land use under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).

 

Also expect regional "blueprint planning networks" to take a major role in determining how carbon can be cut through coordinated scenario modeling, planning, actions and performance indictor metrics. These blueprint networks are already working with the Governor's Office of Planning and Research to make sure general plans and projects are consistent with carbon output scenarios and indicators that will be required under CEQA.

 

Other parts of the mix may include congestion pricing, as well as other ways to reduce indirect sources that will reduce vehicle trips, such as The US Green Building Council's upcoming LEED--Neighborhood Development standards.

 

On the revenue-positive side of the ledger, towns, cities and counties should look to receiving "revenue generated as part of the program that could be distributed in a way to substantially mitigate any price increases."

 

Local and regional governments in California are also already the nation's leading beneficiaries of tax revenues from the rapidly advancing green economy. The growth of green technologies, such as PV solar, and advanced transportation (electric and plug-in hybrid fuel technologies), as well as building products and services (architecture, construction, landscaping, consulting) are some of the hottest growth industries in an otherwise stagnant job market.

 

All in all, AB 32 seeks a per-person carbon reduction from 14 tons for every state resident down to 10 tons per person by 2020.

 

So far, regional and local governments in California are expected to make only about 1-4 percent of these reductions; the next few months will shape until 2020 how every town, city or county will be expected to contribute its part in the nation's first major systematic carbon reduction legislation.   

With some rivers in the Midwest rising 11 feet higher than their all-time historic highs and 20 feet above flood stage, the deluge that is making some locals nostalgic for 1993 is being attributed by a series of White House science agency reports as the result of global climate change.

The US Climate Change Science Program, coordinated by President George Bush, said yesterday that "droughts, heavy downpours, excessive heat, and intense hurricanes are likely to become more commonplace as humans continue to increase the atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases."

This is the first time the program has released results of what climate change will look like in this continent.

Consisting of 13 federal agencies and supervised by green visors including the Office of Management and Budget, and the National Economic Council, this is a sobering look at what the US, Canada and Mexico must do to adapt their economies, the natural environment, food production and communities in the face of such devastation.

The scientists called for improved ability to model extreme weather impacts relationship to global climate change, including severe heat waves, such as the 2003 European heat wave that killed upwards of 35,000, and megadroughts. That way they can better forecast severe weather and its impacts, so people, like those whose communities are underwater in the Midwest, can have an idea of what to expect and can get ready.

The forecast is not pretty.

"In the future, with continued global warming, heat waves and heavy downpours are likely to further to increase in frequency and intensity...more frequent droughts of greater severity.... Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity and storm surge levels are likely to increase."